Mar 09

I’m sure most of my friends, and almost everyone who will read this post, has their own story of how they got started within the world of social media and what they’ve learned. But the Unknown Studio’s recent episode talking to Mack Male / @mastermaq as well as their first episode starring Brittney Le Blanc / @britl I continued my internal dialogue on how social media has become really one of the most important things in my life – and why.

This post is essentially a love letter to social media, thanking it for all it is done in my life – I’ve discovered restaurants, found new insights into life and my community, and met meaningful friends that otherwise I wouldn’t have.

Blog: This blog was my first real foray into any kind of social media, and I looked over my first few posts and I still for the life of me can’t remember what made me get into it. I know other than Allie and her blog, I didn’t know many bloggers in real life and it was a couple of years before I really knew someone who blogged regularly other than my wife and I.

What I do know is that as a result of the provincial PC leadership race of 2006 and watching my friend Dave Cournoyer’s blog daveberta take off, I realized that social media going to be powerful – regardless of the tools involved. Never before and never since has my blog been as widely read as that time, given that I guess I was one of a few who was willing to talk openly about that process and was kind of an insider. Admittedly, and this is a partial tangent, I feel that my participation in social media is far more influential and powerful politically than my time in a political party ever was, which helps explain my dissatisfaction with the partisan political environment.

When it was my only social media outlet, I spent a tonne of time on my blog – enough so that outside of video games it would be fair to say blogging was my primary hobby. And if someone hadn’t invented easier and more meaningful ways to spend, share and contribute online I would likely still be a blogger third to being a husband and a stepfather.

Failed and random events: I meant to keep this list in chronological order but some of the failed attempts at participation did not all occur before Facebook, in fact probably most didn’t. I can’t recall all of the one day accounts I opened at failed locations and relatively obscure outlets, but I’ve also tried and not really got the hang of other more popular things, like Flickr, most of the Google things social media-related like Buzz, GTalk, etc., neat things like deviantart and Last.fm as well as dozens of internet forums – I hate internet forums. Still, not until Facebook and my favourite tool Twitter did I find anything that came close to my blog.

Facebook: My Facebook story is the same as most – I signed up with my alumni account back when it was only for campus community members, quickly amassed many friends, and now have a very powerful and influential tool that I only occasionally pay attention to. All the same, if you read this blog you’re probably my friend, so look me up and add me.

Twitter: Twitter is really where I think my mind on social media radically changed – I see things happen first on Twitter, most of my best friends are on it, and I see it outpacing mainstream media in terms of power and influence. I am a huge Twitter proponent, and if anyone is going to claim to be plugged into their community they need to open the door to Twitter – at least here in Edmonton and Alberta at any rate.

And the fact that I bring up my geographic location is a big deal – prior to Facebook somewhat, but especially Twitter, my social media experience was always location independent. Occasionally I would get invites to events on Facebook that obviously depended on me being in that location when it happened, but Twitter has become my hyper-local web portal, and until I became a part of Edmonton’s Twitter community I never felt like an Edmontonian. Constantly I’m checking out hashtags like #yegfood to find new treats, looking up #yegtraffic to find out if I’m going to be late, seeing who my friends follow and who they mention to find new friends, and reading tags like #ableg to see what is making news politically here (I am, and will always remain a political nerd, so forgive my attention to that tag).

Podcasting and Video-Making: I love podcasts and user videos – the epitome of individuals moving from passive consumers of media to contributors and creators. Indeed, I think it is that shift that will be the most important over the next 10 years in my society – that people no longer expect to just consume but to create. Of course, there is the irony that I am massive proponent of things like podcasting and video creation and photography sharing BUT I don’t do it myself. At least not sufficiently to promote it here. But I want to.

My wife and stepchildren on the other hand relish in their opportunity to create online. They do it with wild abandon. And so do many of my friends. And while the quality is perhaps not always there, when someone I know does something online it has obvious and special meaning and interest – take the best Youtube video I have, as shown below:

If you didn’t know me, the video would probably be pretty average, even dull – but because it is me who is being terrified by his wife it is fantastically funny to my five readers and some of my friends. But sometimes quality isn’t lacking – take my favourite podcast, Hardcore History by Dan Carlin, especially his four part series on the Eastern Front of the Second World War, Ghosts of the Ostfront. I would stake those six hours of spoken word entertainment up against anything full fledged mainstream media production can do.

Foursquare and Empire Avenue: My newest adventures that seem to be progressing beyond an initial look is Foursquare and the beta of Empire Avenue. Foursquare ideally (and possibly entirely) needs a smart phone and allows you to check into physical locations and then advertise your location to your friends. Slightly scary? Of course. Stalker friendly provided you say yes to all friend requests? Yep. But I’ve run into people and arranged last second coffee or beers over it enough times to make me embrace it. I’m still waiting for a few more people to sign up, but I’m a fan of social media unlocking possibilities in the real world rather than limiting my real world contact by cooping me up in front of a computer. Add me, and if I check-in close to you, drop me a Twitter DM and we can meet up and laugh at the people who have no idea what that sentence meant.

Empire Avenue is in Beta but is merging many of these concepts and promises to monetize these concepts and through a virtual stock market puts value on your participation in social media and offers the chance to profit in virtual currency from you and your friends online activities. Neat! And upon reading that description that might suggest that it is a force behind driving me to blog. That wouldn’t be entirely correct, but it wouldn’t be entirely inaccurate.

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Mar 04

I loved last Sunday’s game and the two weeks preceding it – it was a fantastic Winter Olympics for Canada, for Vancouver and for me. A two week sojourn into a magical place where Iggy passed to Crosby to score in overtime for the gold.

Welcome back to reality. Darryl Sutter seems to be trying my patience with his latest moves that I just can’t explain… what are we setting ourselves up for? Making the playoffs and a long playoff run? Next year, filling our roster with competent players while remaining under the cap? The cap space that he shaved by sending Dion Phaneuf is all but spent now in Staios and Stajan, and on the ice we still seem a ways a way from storming the league with a dazzling end. It baffles me that a team with few prospects, few draft picks, and now fewer star players and what I see as still a lack of depth made the moves it has since Jan. 31 and I can’t help but wonder what the strategy – either short-term or long-term is. Can we make the playoffs this year? Yes, but we are not in a playoff spot yet. Will we go deep in those playoffs? Maybe, but the team heading into the 2010 Stanley Cup playoffs seems weaker than the 2009 playoffs. Will we win the Stanley Cup? The odds are not good. Looking to the future, are we hard pressed against the cap? Yes. Can we sign the missing components to the contracts necessary to put a contender on the ice? It doesn’t look as good. Are there prospects in the system? No, not really.

Is it time to blow up the team? I can see that on the horizon, but at the very least we need a roadmap to becoming a contender. And that strategy eludes me, but hopefully it isn’t eluding Sutter and family.

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Mar 02

Sunday will be the star-studded, glitzy and huge event where a massive celebration of sexiness and creativity will be held, but in addition to being my wife’s birthday, I also hear that the Oscars will be given out. I haven’t watched the Oscars in over a decade, but I am interested in the winners so I will be, well, not watching but hitting refresh on my Twitter feed on occasion throughout the evening.

This also marks one of the years where I can say I’ve seen most of the films nominated for best picture before the Oscars – now that we’ve gone to 10 nominees I thought I would be stuck having only seen 40% or so, but it turns out more pictures means more movies I’ve seen as the additional picks like District 9 or Up are the kind of movie I normally see – unlike Precious which while may be very good, skipped the Scotiabank Theatre and isn’t likely to see my eyes unless it goes all the way.

Before I go on, go listen to the Unknown Studio, which I tell all Edmontonians to listen to, as their most recent podcast goes in-depth on Oscar and its intricacies. From their most humble Edmontonian roots, as always.

So, with our narrow focus of movies nominated for best picture that Duncan has seen™, what are we left with:

Admittedly, my tastes have yet to include A Serious Man, which I have no good reason for not having seen and The Blind Side, which will eventually get me down, but Sandra Bullock’s vehicle wouldn’t usually attract me until critics told me I had to go see.

Normally my predisposition and previous history would suggest Avatar would be the winner, and really the reason I wanted to write this blog post was to explain why I wouldn’t give it my nod, but then why I thought other critics should more strongly consider it… I know that sounds complicated…

First, Avatar has a deeply recycled story in a universe that feels far too familiar to win best picture. It just does… I mean I’ve daydreamed most aspects of the story by the time I hit 9 years old and finished it off (admittedly with far more big breasted blue natives) by the time I was 12. You have “Dances With Wolves” but in a sci-fi universe with wicked alien elf technology AND cool human tech too. And it’s in 3-D. That familiarity should end the conversation about who shouldn’t win best picture, but I’ll get back to why I changed my mind on second thought.

Second, the movie I thought should win but maybe shouldn’t – Up In The Air – I love Jason Reitman, I love George Clooney, and I loved the story. I thought everything about the movie was powerful and was deeply and personally awesome. I walked out thinking that is why I go to movies. And then I talked about it with others and realized that it was a movie really made for me – it spoke to much of what I identify with and caught my worst fears and dreams on film, put George Clooney in front as the face and gave it witty dialogue and said “Here Duncan is the best film made all year” and I bought it. And I cannot overstate that you should all go and see it. But if I’m going to dismiss Avatar for having been there, recycled my thoughts and presented them for me to enjoy, I can’t accept Up In The Air for the same reason. Regardless of how fantastic Clooney was.

So, then hits me… Avatar is where we’re going… it isn’t just where we’ve been. I’ve seen some 3-D stuff, I’ve seen a metric tonne (as measured in reels of film – I’ve really seen almost every sci-fi film ever made) of sci-fi, and while Avatar borrows a lot, it is the destination of where film will go. 10 years or 20 years from now no filmmaker will site Up In The Air as their inspiration, few will site Up, and I hope no one will say how Inglourious Basterds or Hurt Locker inspired them, but I can imagine dozens of movies and universes will say Avatar inspired them. It is truly amazing how the world of Avatar is presented and how the 3-D transcends gimmick into the same realm as sound and colour must have seemed to the audiences of the 20’s and 30’s. I’ll applaud, despite the hype, if Avatar wins.

As for the other films, well I loved Up (the only movie I got for Christmas) and District 9 (WOW! Really, not Hollywood, because NEAT-O!). Wonderful to see them included. And I disliked The Hurt Locker and Inglourious Basterds – well dislike is strong, but I though “Meh.” when I saw them. Way overhyped, the both of them. What was missing from the list? STAR TREK – fantastic summer film, run and go see it, and The Watchmen, which despite the disparaging remarks from many was a gorgeous and stunning film that stayed true to the source.

I’ve ranted enough, off to go see another film.

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Feb 25

Canadian JerseyMy patriotism and my love of sports feels like it is at an all-time high this evening, building on last night’s amazing men’s hockey win against Russia and wicked runs on the bobsled track are now taken further with the Gold medal in women’s hockey and sitting down to watch the last of figure skating. I’ve really been quite taken with these Olympics compared to four years ago, when I just couldn’t get into it.

Tomorrow promises to go even further, as I head out to watch the women’s curling Gold followed by the men’s semi-final in hockey.

I wonder what has me so entranced with these games – is it just the venue? Or is it something else? And I know I’m not alone – my whole family has spent every night of these games watching and cheering on our athletes, starting at the opening ceremonies. I’m looking forward to the last weekend and intend to do my best to cheer on our athletes as they compete for gold!

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Feb 25

I’ve abandoned Blogger, my home on the web since before Google owned it, back in the heady days when only true geeks had blogs, and Allie was the only blogger I knew in real life other than myself. The transition to WordPress shouldn’t be too difficult, but if a link or something doesn’t work have some patience!

Feb 09

Every time that chicken gets me. If it weren’t budget day tomorrow, I bet I’d be in line. Alas, too much work between 6:00am and 2:00pm.

Oh, and today’s secret code is:

EAVB_ISYKXFCCVQ

Feb 08

I just need to see if it works…

Jan 13

Premier Ed Stelmach unveiled his hotly anticipated cabinet shuffle this afternoon – although I haven’t decided whether “hotly” is hyperbole or not… my world certainly watched with interest and I hit refresh a couple of times on my browser. Typically I describe these events as inside ball, mostly of interest only to a few inside the Legislature and to those who have something at stake within an individual department or attached to an individual MLA. This one was different as it was seen as the response to the declining poll numbers of the governing party and the sort of ennui that seems to have taken over government. In an environment where the mainstream and social media of Alberta (and perhaps the population in general, who knows…) seem to be clamoring for change, how was does this “compassionate” cabinet shuffle breakdown?

Biggest Surprise
This is not as large a shuffle as I was expecting and was made out to be – only three Ministers sent to the backbench. I was suggesting as many as 10 – and fewer departments too. The size of the cabinet remains at 24 and there is even now one more Parliamentary Assistant. 20 Ministers got to keep a portfolio, and half got to keep the same job.

I think the biggest surprise on an individual was that Doug Griffiths wasn’t made a minister, and in fact was turfed from being a Parliamentary Assistant. He was put on Treasury Board, and I can’t speak too much on whether that is a lateral move or a demotion. I believe Doug Griffiths is a phenomenal talent and it is a shame he wasn’t promoted. The same could be said of Parliamentary Assistants Diana McQueen and Fred Horne – all three have the talent to be fantastic ministers.

For me personally I was most surprised that Doug Horner wasn’t moved because that was all the scuttlebutt of yesterday and I work in post-secondary education – in fact, he got a nice promotion as Deputy Premier and Minister Liaison for the Canadian Armed Forces. Does that mean he is the Provincial Minister of Defence?

Change
By the numbers, this cabinet retains 20 of 23 members (excluding the Premier) – or 87% of its old membership. It leaves 10 in the same portfolio.

Like I said above, this cabinet has more in common with the last cabinet than it has changes. Our new cabinet ministers are Frank Oberle, the past Party Whip and MLA for Peace River; Jonathan Denis from Calgary-Egmont; and Thomas Lukaszuk, MLA for Edmonton-Castle-Downs. Ten ministers were also shuffled around, with Ted Morton to Finance, Ron Liepert to Energy and Gene Zwozdesky to Health likely to be seen as the most prominent. Both Denis and Lukaszuk were Parliamentary Assistants, so with the two spots they free up, the loss of Doug Griffiths and David Xiao from the PA ranks and the creation of a new Parliamentary Assistant we have five new PAs: Greg Weadick, Teresa Woo-Paw, Cal Dallas, Fred Horne and Jeff Johnson.

George Groeneveld, Janis Tarchuk and Fred Lindsay were the only cabinet ministers to lose their jobs entirely, and David Xiao and Doug Griffiths as mentioned above lose their spots as Parliamentary Assistants. I think it is important to note that Groeneveld and Lindsay were two of the seven MLAs who backed Stelmach as leader from the start – I don’t know if this portends anything, just a good-to-know fact.

Winners and Losers
Hard to say – and partly I do not know how to weigh certain ministries vis-a-vis their old ones. Like was Liepert promoted or demoted? I would say that was lateral. Also, I do not know how to value Parliamentary Assistanceships vis-a-vis Treasury Board etc. But some today were winners:

Doug Horner: By virtue of adding Deputy Premier to his business card, he grows in stock and is now second in order of precedence. Definitely a gain.

Gene Zwozdesky: He has touched the portfolio before as Assistant Minister of Health but the promotion to the big and difficult portfolio has to be seen as a win.

Ted Morton: From all accounts he performed admirably in Sustainable Resource Development and is given a top visible job as Finance, although it remains to be seen if the true power still lies with Lloyd Snelgrove.

Lindsay Blackett: By virtue of staying in his job after what I consider to be a terrible performance as Minister of Culture and Community Spirit, Blackett gets to call today a win.

New ministers: Oberle, Denis and Lukaszuk are the obvious winners as newly minted Ministers.

Staff in the Legislature: Obviously the Premier wasn’t lying when he said it was important to take into account the political staffers who work for Ministers, as the majority will at worst have to move desks and learn new files.

The losers:

Groeneveld, Tarchuk and Lindsay: These three stop being honourable when the new cabinet is sworn in – at least on letterhead. Media suggests Groeneveld and Lindsay got moved out as they may not be running next election and are comfortable making room for others, and as for Tarchuk, her time in Children’s Services was not good.

Griffiths, McQueen and Horne: Honestly I thought all three of these individuals would have been made Ministers.

Evans? Knight?: I have no idea how they see their moves, perhaps they don’t see them as demotions. Evans in International and Intergovernmental Relations makes sense if she will get the London job the media speculated on and Knight should do fine in Sustainable Resource Development.

Geography
The new Ministers come from Peace River, Calgary and Edmonton and the departing Ministers come from rural-ish Alberta (although Tarchuk might be identified as a Calgary-area MLA as might Groeneveld) tipping the balance slightly north and slightly urban. Geography is a fairly touchy subject in cabinet-making, but I suspect this is considered a wash more or less. Although on second thought, with the Deputy Premier now coming from the Edmonton bedroom community area as well, maybe Calgary loses a little.

Diversity
No new women, one woman dropped from cabinet, and all six who lose or gain ministerial positions are white – disappointing the gender balance wasn’t maintained or improved, but it is a shame political life isn’t more welcoming for women in general.

Leftover Questions
Will Morton and Snelgrove have the same relationship as Iris Evans did with Lloyd? Who between those two will actually control what is spent in this province, or can raise taxes?

Will the appointment of Morton be enough to prove to fiscal and social conservatives that the PCs are the best small-c conservative option in the province?

Will Ron Liepert fix whatever was broken in Energy? Will Gene Zwozdesky fix whatever was broken in Health?

I guess Lukaszuk’s private members bill to stop floor-crossing will die unless he finds another MLA to pick it up, as he will stop being a backbencher.

Will the losers of this shuffle flee to the Wildrose? Will voters?

Jan 05

Yesterday’s defection of Rob Anderson and Heather Forsyth sent a lovely ripple through Alberta’s political scene yesterday and ensured the first day back for many in the Legislature and beyond was at least interesting. As many have noted, including the Premier’s office, this is not a total surprise but has certainly set the tone for the new year and it likely is not the tone Premier Ed Stelmach was hoping for.

I for one would not be shocked if this was only the beginning of a few more defections, as there are bound to be hurt egos in the upcoming cabinet shuffle and government revenues force a difficult budget to be tabled in February. If this is going to be a semi-regular occurrence, it will bring up a few questions around floor crossing, indeed questioning the motives and legitimacy of Forsyth and Anderson’s decision has already begun. You can read Chris Labossiere’s take here, the quote from the Airdrie-Chestermere PC Association’s here as well as Brian Mason calling for a by-election at iNews 880.

And they are important questions to ask, although admittedly when a Progressive Conservative or a New Democrat does it, it rings a little hollow. The Tories certainly didn’t force Stan Woloshyn, Gene Zwozdesky or Julius Yanikowsky to run in a by-election when they crossed the floor, and if a Tory went over to the Mason’s New Democrats we would be far more concerned about the impending end of the world to worry ourselves over a by-election. But in a electoral atmosphere dominated by partisan parties and especially their leaders it is a fair statement that most people vote for the party or the leader, and the MLA or MP are kind of a secondary thought. So if a member changes parties mid-stream, shouldn’t they go back to the polls? I don’t think so.

I am fan of floor crossing – for selfish and less selfish reasons. Selfishly, I think they are cool. They liven things up. They make politics more interesting and they offer a glimpse of personalities and undercurrents that focusing exclusively on leaders does not. It helps keep the system dynamic and responsive, and while it can heavily politicize government as well , it does make for interesting reading on Monday morning. I’ve blogged a little about it before, but clearly I’m a fan.

Less selfishly, it curbs the power of the executive in our system to dominate the legislative branch. And to be clear, the executive in the form of the cabinet and especially the first minister dominates our system. Rob Anderson reflected on his time in the PC caucus and said “elected MLAs generally have little, if any, real input into the decisions that impact the lives of their constituents,” but neat part of floor crossing is that it proves that wrong. Making the decision he has Anderson has guaranteed that his actions will have an impact on the decision-making process and the minds of unelected advisors to the Premier.

The voters in Calgary-Fish Creek and Airdrie-Chestermere will get their chance to pass judgment on yesterday’s floor crossing soon enough, 2012 if not sooner. And if the opening week of 2010 is any indication, a lot will happen between now and then.

Postscript: Paul Stanway from Premier Stelmach’s office said “It’s not that unexpected,” when asked about the poll numbers that put the Wildrose Alliance way ahead last month. On the defections yesterday he said “We’ve known this was going to happen.” Umm… kind of odd sound bytes, don’t you think? Not the quotes expected from the Premier or from the office of the leader of the dominant party in Alberta. You would think if the Premier’s office can see it coming, they might do something about it…

Dec 13

The ancient Chinese curse always seemed to be an illusion here in Alberta, the closer we got to compelling and genuinely interesting times in provincial (or even provincially-local federal) politics, in reality the further away we got. Whether it was the minor drop in PC support in 2004, the PC leadership race in 2006 or the election in 2008, the closer we traveled towards change in Alberta politics the more like a mirage it seemed. Well to take the metaphor a little further we may be a lot closer to the oasis, or we may be at yet another hiccup in Alberta politics that has no bearing on the grand political story of our province.

I’m referring to the ongoing rise of the Wildrose Alliance here in Alberta. A recent poll places them in first place province-wide, and there is no denying they have a level of momentum an opposition party hasn’t enjoyed until the Liberals in 1993 or beyond. Other bloggers have covered the specifics of the poll – daveberta, Brian Dell and Ken Chapman – and I don’t want to rehash the territory that they’ve covered.

But there is the distinct chance that now we have entered a period of distinct (and dare I say refreshing) uncertainty. I have no idea what will happen – these numbers show Albertans are willing to entertain the end of the PC dynasty but given the utter absence of any solid or realistic policy on the part of the Wildrose Alliance (Brian Dell’s commentary aside – he has great policy ideas, but aren’t reflected in the terrible Alliance policy book) this likely represents little more than an expression of Albertans dissatisfaction with the status quo. But what could happen? Without copping out and saying anything could happen (which is certainly correct – but also would mean I wouldn’t have a post to write) I’ll speculate on six possibilities for the next two years culminating in the spring 2012 election.

1. Hi, I’m Alberta politics and I’m boring. Nothing happens, at least not in the grand sense. The Progressive Conservatives under Premier Stelmach win the election in 2012 after a period of relatively responsible governing with a couple of gems to show off as accomplishments. As many know I’m a fan of Stelmach’s governing from Dec. ‘06 to Apr. ‘08 – and I can see him returning to those kinds of accomplishments – steady progress on a series of fronts. The thing is, I think he’s been governing this way since April 2008 as well, just with a certain lack of accomplishments to point to. Fast forward to 2012 the message has to be a return to prosperity but with Premier Stelmach being the one at the helm when we left prosperity that message will ring much more hollow than when Premier Klein was able to paint the Getty administration as the bad guy in the scenario rather than Stelmach who will have no bad guy in his tale. That said, I still think this is the most likely of the six, just not the certainty as before.

2. My Premier is hotter than your Premier. Danielle Smith has captured all sorts of momentum and interest, and strangely without really saying a whole lot that would define her. Which is ok, because I still can’t tell you what Dr. Kevin Taft stood for other than it being time for something and he was leader of the official opposition for five years. But in the next two years she could build a party of good candidates, good policy, good organization and good fundraising that is able to compete for the crown. The Wildrose Alliance wins in 2012 by stealing the majority of disaffected PC voters, a lot like Reform took federal PC voters in 1993. The thing is… I don’t think Alberta is that right-wing. Wildrose has a long way to go before they resemble anything centrist and they don’t appear to have any desire to go that way. So if this scenario is to come true one of two things will have to happen: either I have to be wrong about how right-wing Alberta is or the Wildrose Alliance will have to moderate, moderate, moderate. The problem is I’m often wrong. Imagine a provincial government further to the social and fiscal right than the present government provincially or federally. As it stands, I think this is the second most likely scenario.

3. The King is dead. Long live the King! The Alberta PCs are masters of reinvention and they could do it again. I think it would be risky. I think it would be a sign party insiders and other people of power believe the end is nigh for the dynasty and only by removing the leader can they hope to compete in 2012. This scenario isn’t exclusive of all the other scenarios mind you, but for sake of projecting to the 2012 election this would assume the reinvented PC party wins the 2012 election and continues on as government. The natural question would be who leads this party and does the party swing right, left or other… I could speculate on the names of the new leader or premier but that would just serve to stir the pot. Would they go right or left – well that depends, who is more likely to vote for this revitalized PC party who presently wouldn’t – someone from the 35% Wildrose camp or someone from the 25% Liberal? I think the answer is from the right.

4. From each according to his ability, to each according to his need. The “progressives” of Alberta unite. And the 23 of them go out and find another 150,000 ordinary Albertans to join them. This option, like the other three described above, is well underway. Renew Alberta launches their website tomorrow and there are plenty of centrists and lefties that are fairly disappointed with the status quo. As the Tories and WAP split the right and the Liberals and NDP are either sentenced to further obscurity or actually endorse a unified progressive option this becomes a possibility. Enough so to form government? Well there is a reason I put it as fourth. Although a leader like Dave Bronconnier or a Anne McLellan could change that.

5. If Bob Rae once became Premier of Ontario, I guess Premier Swann is possible… The division among the right and two years of disastrous governing by the Tories leads to… a Liberal government. Similar to the scenario above except using one of the mainstream parties from Alberta’s left – but the thing is I think it is a virtual impossibility. I include it here partly that this scenario will drive some of the actions of Alberta’s political actors and remains a major barrier to the united progressives scenario coming true. Such a scenario would mean the Liberals would have to accomplish those same four objectives I listed for the Wildrose, good candidates, good policy, good organization and good fundraising. And the thing is, they’ve failed at all four of those goals for nearly a century.

6. Minority. Determining the likelihood of this in any real terms involves math and I’m not in the mood. But given our reluctance to leave first past the post and the way the Alberta elections and geographic distribution of votes goes down I think this isn’t as likely as majority government. The list of considerations would all be post-2012 but I can certainly see the Tories and/or WAP propping up the other in power before I see many other scenarios. In the event the Tories lose government there will be a difficult period of self-reflection for that party and one which I believe will kill the party itself, which leads me to my final prediction.

Regardless of which of the six scenarios I’ve laid out you think is most likely, I do think this all paints a specific picture for the current governing party – this is win or die. The PC party is not likely to take opposition well, and unless a left of centre party is the one that takes the Premier’s chair it is hard to imagine the money and volunteers that focus their efforts on the PC party staying past 2012. Much like the PC / Liberal supporters in Saskatchewan or the Social Credit / right-of-centre people in British Columbia or the Social Credit supporters in the Alberta of old, the PCs will take a mortal blow if scenario #2 or maybe most variants of scenario #6 as well a good chance under the united progressive government or a Liberal government the PCs will sit in opposition, and without the levers of power and the promise of government they will discover that their political muscle without those goodies have atrophied to the point of obsolescence and that 40 years in power has meant they stand for shockingly little beyond relatively good governance and staying in power. Of course, if they win, then this becomes another chapter that is almost boilerplate in our political history – Alberta political dynasty briefly threatened by crazies, government comes up with new shiny thing, crazies go away, victory is had and spoils divided, repeat.

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